Appendix 3: Methodology to Calculate Annual Revenue of Trafficked Crime Guns
While the percentage of crime guns relative to firearm sales is small, the overall number of crime guns is itself staggering.107ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume IV: Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms—Part I: Firearm Commerce Updates and New Analysis,” January 2025, 16, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-iv-part-i-firearm-commerce-updates-and-new-analysis/download. See Table FC-18: “EMSV Totals by Year.” Between 2017 and 2023, an average of 15 million firearms have been sold by licensed dealers annually.; ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume IV: Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms—Part III: Crime Gun Tracing Updates and New Analysis,” January 2025, 3, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-iv-part-iii-%E2%80%93-crime-gun-tracing-updates-and-new-analysis/download. See Table CGT-06: “Traced to Purchaser.” Between 2018 and 2023, an average of approximately 340,000 crime guns have been recovered and traced to a purchase from a licensed dealer. For those firearms used in crimes, the time between when the firearm was purchased from a dealer and when it was recovered in a crime, known as time-to-crime (TTC), is critical in determining whether the original purchase was illegal. According to law enforcement and researchers, a TTC of less than three years is widely considered to be a strong indicator of trafficking and illegal activity by licensed gun dealers.108ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume II: Crime Gun Intelligence and Analysis—Part III: Crime Guns Recovered and Traced within the United States and Its Territories,” March 2024, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-ii-part-iii-crime-guns-recovered-and-traced-us/download; H.S. Laqueur, C. Smirniotis, and C. McCort, “Predicting Short Time-to-Crime Guns: A Machine Learning Analysis of California Transaction Records (2010—2021),” Journal of Urban Health 101, no. 5 (October 2024): 955-967, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11461422/#:~:text=The%20rapid%20diversion%20of%20a,crime%20%5B10%2C%2011%5D.
Estimating Trafficked Crime Guns by Year of Sale and TTC
To estimate the number of trafficked crime guns sold between 2017 and 2023, we first determined the actual and estimated number of crime gun recoveries traced to a purchase from an FFL between 2018 and 2026. Data from 2018 to 2023 were obtained from ATF data using the actual number of crime guns traced to a purchaser.109Everytown analysis of ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume IV: Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms—Part III: Crime Gun Tracing Updates and New Analysis,” January 2025, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-iv-part-iii-%E2%80%93-crime-gun-tracing-updates-and-new-analysis/download, Table CGT-06: “Number and Percentage of Crime Guns Traced to a Purchaser by Year.” Data for 2024 and 2025 have not yet been released by ATF and 2026 is speculative; for these years we calculated projected estimates based on a rolling average of the previous three years’ totals.110For example, to estimate traces in 2024, the average of traces in 2021, 2022, and 2023 was utilized.
Next, to determine the estimated number of trafficked crime guns recovered each year, we calculated the national TTC average using the annual ATF Firearms Trace Data for the years 2019 through 2023. The five-year (2019–2023) average was 25.3 percent for a TTC of less than one year, 14.4 percent for a TTC of between 1 and two years, and 10.3 percent for a TTC of between two and three years.111Everytown analysis of ATF, “Data & Statistics: Firearm Trace Data,” 2019–2023, https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/data-statistics. Those percentages were then applied to the total crime gun recoveries traced to a purchase from an FFL each year between 2018 and 2026. For example, to determine the number of trafficked crime guns sold in 2017, we take 25.3 percent of the total crime guns recovered in 2018, 14.4 percent of crime guns recovered in 2019, and 10.3 percent of crime guns recovered in 2020.
This analysis revealed that between 2017 and 2023, more than 930,000 firearms had a TTC of under three years and were likely trafficked.112Everytown analysis of ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume IV: Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms—Part III: Crime Gun Tracing Updates and New Analysis,” January 2025, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-iv-part-iii-%E2%80%93-crime-gun-tracing-updates-and-new-analysis/download, Table CGT-06: “Number and Percentage of Crime Guns Traced to a Purchaser by Year”; ATF, “Data & Statistics: Firearms Trace Data,” 2019–2023, https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/data-statistics. Assuming the rates of recoveries and tracing continue, by the end of 2026, that number is projected to exceed 1.27 million.
Table 1. Estimated Total Trafficked Crime Guns Sold, 2017–2023
| Year of Sale | Actual and Estimated Total Crime Gun Recoveries Traced to a Purchase from an FFL113“Total Crime Gun Recoveries Traced to a Purchaser from an FFL” data for 2018–2023 were obtained from NFCTA volume IV, part III, table CGT-06: “Number and Percentage of Crime Guns Traced to a Purchaser by Year.” Data for 2024–2026 have not yet been released by the ATF, in place we used projected estimates based on a rolling average of the previous three years’ totals. | # of Traces with TTC Less Than 1 Year114To determine the estimated number of traces with a given time-to-crime (TTC), we first calculated a national average of the total recoveries in each TTC category based on annual ATF Firearms Trace Data for the years 2019 through 2023 and then calculated the percentage of total trafficked guns in each TTC category. The 5-year (2019–2023) average percentage was 25.3 percent for a TTC of less than one year, 14.4 percent for a TTC of between one and two years, and 10.3 percent for a TTC of between two and three years. Those percentages were then applied to the “Total Crime Gun Recoveries Traced to a Purchaser from an FFL” each year. | # of Traces with TTC between 1 and 2 Years | # of Traces with TTC between 2 and 3 Years | Total Trafficked and Recovered Crime Guns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | N/A | 68,149 (recovered 2018) | 40,077 (recovered 2019) | 32,686 (recovered 2020) | 140,912 |
| 2018 | 269,363 | 70,413 (recovered 2019) | 45,697 (recovered 2020) | 37,647 (recovered 2021) | 153,757 |
| 2019 | 278,313 | 80,287 (recovered 2020) | 52,632 (recovered 2021) | 42,603 (recovered 2022) | 175,522 |
| 2020 | 317,339 | 92,472 (recovered 2021) | 59,561 (recovered 2022) | 42,354 (recovered 2023) | 194,387 |
| 2021 | 365,501 | 104,645 (recovered 2022) | 59,214 (recovered 2023) | Est. 40,868 (recovered 2024) | Est. 204,727 |
| 2022 | 413,618 | 104,035 (recovered 2023) | Est. 57,136 (recovered 2024) | Est. 41,942 (recovered 2025) | Est. 203,113 |
| 2023 | 411,207 | Est. 100,384 (recovered 2024) | Est. 58,637 (recovered 2025) | Est. 41,721 (recovered 2026) | Est. 200,742 |
| Est. 2024 | 396,775 | ||||
| Est. 2025 | 407,200 | ||||
| Est. 2026 | 405,061 | ||||
| Total | 3,264,377 | Est. 1,273,159 |
Estimating the Price of Trafficked Crime Guns
To estimate the revenue from trafficked firearms, it’s essential first to understand crime gun composition and the cost of new and used firearms. According to ATF, of traced crime guns recovered between 2017 and 2023, 71 percent were pistols, 12 percent rifles, 10 percent revolvers, and 6 percent shotguns.115ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume II: Crime Guns—Part III: Crime Guns Recovered and Traced within the United States and Its Territories,” February 2023, 17, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-ii-part-iii-crime-guns-recovered-and-traced-us/download. See Table CCT-02: “Percentage of Traced Crime Guns by Type, 2017–2021”; ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume IV: Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms—Part III: Crime Gun Tracing Updates and New Analysis,” January 2025, 2, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-iv-part-iii-%E2%80%93-crime-gun-tracing-updates-and-new-analysis/download. See Table CGT-02: “Types of Traced Crime Guns, 2022–2023.” NFCTA research on ATF trafficking investigations indicates two-thirds of trafficked guns are new.116ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume III: Firearms Trafficking Investigations—Part V: Type and Volume of Firearms Trafficked,” April 2024, 1, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-iii-part-v/download. See Table TVF-01: “Total Number and Percentage of Cases by Firearm Kind, 2017–2021.”
The retail cost of firearms can also vary dramatically depending on caliber, finish, material, and accessories. To calculate average sales price, we used the website TrueGunValue.com, which aggregates online listings of firearms to determine the current average price of new and used firearms.
While there are hundreds of different makes, models, and caliber combinations of firearms, for pricing purposes, this analysis used the top-traced make and caliber for each type of firearm.
- Pistols: The top-traced pistol was manufactured by Glock, and the top-traced pistol caliber was 9mm.117Between 2017 and 2021, 20 percent of all pistols recovered and traced were manufactured by Glock and 50 percent of all pistols recovered and traced were 9mm. ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume II: Crime Guns—Part III: Crime Guns Recovered and Traced within the United States and Its Territories,” February 2023, 18–20, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-ii-part-iii-crime-guns-recovered-and-traced-us/download. See Tables CCG-05 and CCG-09.
- Rifles: The top-traced rifle was split between Marlin and Ruger. Given that Marlin firearms have been produced by Ruger since 2020, and Ruger produces several AR-type rifles, a Ruger rifle was used for pricing purposes. The top-traced rifle caliber was .22— but the calibers of 5.56mm, 7.62mm, and .223mm, all commonly used in AR-style rifles, when combined were the top-traced calibers.118Between 2017 and 2021, nine percent of all rifles recovered and traced were manufactured by Ruger and 34 percent of all rifles recovered and traced were either .233, 5.56mm, or 7.62mm. ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume II: Crime Guns—Part III: Crime Guns Recovered and Traced within the United States and Its Territories,” February 2023, 18–20, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-ii-part-iii-crime-guns-recovered-and-traced-us/download. See Tables CCG-06 and CCG-10.
- Revolvers: The top-traced revolver was manufactured by Smith & Wesson and the top traced revolver caliber was .38.119Between 2017 and 2021, 26 percent of all revolvers recovered and traced were manufactured by Smith & Wesson, and 41 percent of all revolvers recovered and traced were .38 caliber. ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume II: Crime Guns—Part III: Crime Guns Recovered and Traced within the United States and Its Territories,” February 2023, 18–20, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-ii-part-iii-crime-guns-recovered-and-traced-us/download. See Tables CCG-07 and CCG-11.
- Shotguns: The top-traced shotgun was a Mossberg, and the top-traced shotgun gauge was 12 gauge.120Between 2017 and 2021, 20 percent of all shotguns recovered and traced were manufactured by Mossberg, and 76 percent of all shotguns recovered and traced were 12 gauge. ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume II: Crime Guns—Part III: Crime Guns Recovered and Traced within the United States and Its Territories,” February 2023, 18–20, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-ii-part-iii-crime-guns-recovered-and-traced-us/download. See Tables CCG-08 and CCG-12.
Table 2. New and Used Average Cost of Top-Traced Firearms121True Gun Value, accessed October 7, 2025, https://truegunvalue.com/.
| Type of Firearm | Make and Caliber | Price/New | Price/Used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pistol | Glock 9mm | $647 | $387 |
| Rifle | Ruger AR | $638 | $497 |
| Revolver | S&W .38 | $577 | $377 |
| Shotgun | Mossberg 12 GA | $552 | $293 |
Estimating the Annual Revenue of Trafficked Crime Guns
To estimate the annual revenue of trafficked firearms, we first calculated the estimated number of trafficked firearms for each type of firearm (pistols, rifles, revolvers, and shotguns) based on the estimated number of trafficked crime guns.122See Table 1. Estimated Total Trafficked Crime Guns Sold, 2017–2023. Next, we applied the percentage of new (66 percent) and used (33 percent) trafficked firearms to the estimate for each firearm type.123The ATF estimates that of trafficked firearms involved in trafficking investigations, 66 percent were sold new. Therefore, we applied 66 percent of each firearm type to the average new price and 33 percent to the average used price and summed those amounts to get the total for each type. ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume III: Firearms Trafficking Investigations—Part V: Type and Volume of Firearms Trafficked,” April 2024, 1, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-iii-part-v/download. See Table TVF-01: “Total Number and Percentage of Cases by Firearm Kind, 2017–2021.” Finally, we applied the average corresponding pricing of the top-traced crime guns for new and used firearms to each firearm type124See Table 2. New and Used Average Cost of Top-Traced Firearms. and summed across firearm types and years.
This analysis revealed that gun dealers are estimated to have earned approximately $695 million in illegal sales of trafficked firearms between 2017 and 2023.
Table 3. Estimated Annual Revenue of Trafficked Crime Guns
| Year Sold | Estimated Total Trafficked Crime Guns | # of Trafficked Pistols (Cost125True Gun Value, “Glock Pistol Price and Historical Value,” accessed October 7, 2025, https://truegunvalue.com/pistol/glock/price-historical-value. Average cost of a new Glock pistol is $647 and a used Glock pistol is $387.) | # of Trafficked Rifles (Cost126True Gun Value, “Ruger AR Rifle Price and Historical Value,” accessed October 7, 2025, https://truegunvalue.com/rifle/RUGER-AR-/price-historical-value. Average cost of an AR-type rifle is $638 new and $497 used. ) | # of Trafficked Revolvers (Cost127True Gun Value, “S&W .38 Revolver Price and Historical Value,” accessed October 7, 2025, https://truegunvalue.com/pistol/S%26W-.38-REVOLVER/price-historical-value. Average cost of a Smith & Wesson .38 revolver is $577 new and $377 used.) | # of Trafficked Shotguns (Cost128True Gun Value, “Mossberg 12GA Shotgun Price and Historical Value,” accessed October 7, 2025, https://truegunvalue.com/shotgun/mossberg-12GA-/price-historical-value. Average cost of a Mossberg 12 gauge shotgun is $552 new and $293 used.) | Annual Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 140,912 | 100,000 ($56M) | 17,000 ($10M) | 14,000 ($7M) | 8,000 ($4M) | $77M |
| 2018 | 153,757 | 109,000 ($61M) | 18,000 ($11M) | 15,000 ($8M) | 9,000 ($4M) | $84M |
| 2019 | 175,522 | 125,000 ($70M) | 21,000 ($12M) | 18,000 ($9M) | 11,000 ($5M) | $96M |
| 2020 | 194,387 | 138,000 ($77M) | 23,000 (14M) | 19,000 ($10M) | 12,000 ($5M) | $106M |
| 2021 | 204,727 | 145,000 ($81M) | 25,000 ($14M) | 20,000 ($10M) | 12,000 ($6M) | $112M |
| 2022 | 203,113 | 144,000 ($81M) | 24,000 ($14M) | 20,000 ($10M) | 12,000 ($6M) | $111M |
| 2023 | 200,742 | 143,000 ($80M) | 24,000 ($14M) | 20,000 ($10M) | 12,000 ($6M) | $110M |
| Total | 1,273,159 | 904,000 ($505M) | 153,000 ($90M) | 127,000 ($65M) | 76,000 ($35M) | $695M |
The estimated $695 million in sales revenue from 1.27 million trafficked firearms is alarming—but likely a significant underestimate. According to the NFCTA research, only 55 percent of all law enforcement agencies trace recovered crime guns,129ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume IV: Protecting America from Trafficked Firearms—Part IX: Final Recommendations,” January 2025, 1, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-iv-part-ix-%E2%80%93-final-recommendations/download. and just 14 states mandate comprehensive tracing.
Even when guns are submitted for tracing, only about 80 percent can be successfully traced back to a purchase from a dealer. The remaining 20 percent fail for several reasons—including incomplete or invalid firearm descriptions provided by law enforcement (7 percent), dealer failure to maintain required records documenting the acquisition and sale of the firearm (5 percent), and the recovered firearm has a partial, incomplete, or obliterated serial number (2.5 percent).130ATF, “National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFTCA), Volume II: Crime Guns—Part III: Crime Guns Recovered and Traced within the United States and Its Territories,” February 2023, 5, https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/nfcta-volume-ii-part-iii-crime-guns-recovered-and-traced-us/download. See Table OFT-05: “Reasons Crime Guns Are Not Traced to a Purchaser, 2017–2021.”
If these tracing gaps were resolved, and an additional 14.5 percent of trafficked crime guns were successfully traced, the estimated number of trafficked crime guns would increase to nearly 1.46 million—pushing total illicit sales revenue above $796 million.
Note that many firearms, especially assault-style rifles, are often outfitted with magazines, sights, grips, and other accessories, all of which enhance industry revenue. In fact, according to a survey recently conducted by the leading firearm trade association, the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), approximately 86 percent of AR- and AK-style rifle purchasers customize their rifle, spending an average of $618 on accessories.131National Shooting Sports Foundation, “NSSF Report: Modern Sporting Rifle Comprehensive Consumer Report,” July 14, 2022,https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ncmd.98070/gov.uscourts.ncmd.98070.54.4.pdf. Based on the estimated number of trafficked rifles, the additional accessories would generate nearly $81 million in additional sales revenue.132An estimated 153,000 rifles were trafficked, of which 86 percent (131,580) may have been accessorized at an average of $618 per rifle.
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