“Chaos and Uncertainty”: A Concealed Carry Mandate is Dangerous and Unpopular

Introduction

New York City is the largest city in the United States and the most visited, welcoming nearly 65 million tourists in 2024 alone.¹US Census Bureau, “City and Town Population Totals: 2020-2023,” June 2024, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html; NYC Mayor’s Office, “Mayor Adams Celebrates Nearly 65 Million Visitors to NYC in 2024, Second Highest Number of Visitors in City History,” press release, December 20, 2024, https://www.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/941-24/mayor-adams-celebrates-nearly-65-million-visitors-nyc-2024-second-highest-number-visitors; Rachel Chang, “The 15 Most Visited Cities in the United States,” Conde Nast Traveler, January 16, 2025, https://www.cntraveler.com/story/most-visited-american-cities; International Trade Administration, “U.S. States & Cities Most Visited by Overseas Travelers,” US Department of Commerce, last updated June 26, 2024, https://www.trade.gov/us-states-cities-visited-overseas-travelers. And while navigating Times Square can be a challenge, tourists getting up early for a bagel or staying out late on Broadway can rest assured that they are in one of the safest large cities in the country—with a gun homicide rate four times lower than the average large US city.²Everytown analysis of 2022–2023 FBI Supplementary Homicide Report (accessed December 2023) and 2022–2023 FBI National Incident-Based Reporting System (accessed October 2024), https://everytownresearch.org/report/city-data/. One reason for New York’s low gun homicide rate is its strong gun laws, including a requirement that gun owners obtain a permit to carry a concealed gun in public. While states that have repealed strong permitting requirements have seen dramatic increases in violence in the decade that followed,³Donohue, John J., Abhay Aneja, and Kyle D. Weber. “Right‐to‐carry laws and violent crime: A comprehensive assessment using panel data and a state‐level synthetic control analysis.” Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 16, no. 2 (2019): 198-247. New York has avoided that fate in part by retaining strong licensing laws. 

But legislators in Congress are now threatening to end this rule—and the peace of mind it provides. These lawmakers are pushing a federal mandate that would override carefully crafted gun safety laws, like New York’s, commanding states to ignore their own laws and instead allow people from across the country to carry loaded, hidden handguns in public without even so much as a permit or background check. Such a mandate would force each state to allow violent offenders from out of state to carry firearms within its borders—even if those people could not otherwise legally buy a gun in that state or were from one of 29 states that don’t require a license to carry at all. This would jeopardize public safety and tourism in New York City and in cities and towns across the country by undermining the permitting systems that keep people safe and that reflect the will of local voters. 

Dangerous results will follow: If one of the leading mandate proposals were to become federal law, New York City Police Department officers could not arrest a man from South Carolina with a history of domestic violence for carrying his loaded firearm without a license through the city on his way to find his estranged girlfriend. Further, the police officers involved could even be sued for stopping him and asking questions. Perhaps this is the reason the policy is broadly opposed by the public and has long been unpopular with law enforcement.⁴Pew Research Center, “Gun Violence Widely Viewed as a Major—and Growing—National Problem,” June 2023, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/06/28/americans-views-of-specific-gun-policy-proposals/; Cassandra Crifasi et al., “Public Opinion on Laws Regulating Public Gun Carrying,” Preventive Medicine 159 (June 2022), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107067; International Association of Chiefs of Police, “Law Enforcement Leaders Express Opposition to the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act,” press release, April 19, 2018, https://www.theiacp.org/news/blog-post/law-enforcement-leaders-express-opposition-to-the-concealed-carry-reciprocity-act; Major Cities Chiefs Association, “2018 Annual Report,” 2018, https://majorcitieschiefs.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2018_mcca_annual_reportcompressed.pdf; Major Cities Chiefs Association, “Firearms Violence Policy,” 2018, https://majorcitieschiefs.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/mcca_gun_policy_revised_2018_copy.pdf; Fraternal Order of Police, “Legislation Opposed by the FOP in the 115th Congress,” https://fop.net/legislation/legislation-opposed-by-the-fop-in-the-115th-congress/; National Police Foundation, “National Law Enforcement Partnership to Prevent Gun Violence 2010-2021, Partnership Report,” July 2021, https://www.policinginstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/NPF_NLEPPGV_Partnership-Report_Final2_2021.pd.

Overriding state concealed carry permitting requirements would increase gun deaths and assaults in our country and make it more challenging for law enforcement to protect our communities.

A Federal Mandate Would Override State Laws That Protect the Majority of Americans

In the United States today, people in every state are allowed to carry concealed guns in public.⁵A gun is concealed if it is carried in a manner in which it is not visible to others. But most people live in states where their representatives have determined that permits for carrying these guns are a vital part of protecting the public.⁶The total 2023 population of the 21 states and DC that require permits to concealed carry (CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OR, PA, RI, VA, WA, WI) is 178,849,127, or 53 percent of the total 2023 US population of 334,914,895. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, WONDER online database, Underlying Cause of Death, 2023.

Further, existing federal law already addresses the issue of transporting firearms through states. Law-abiding gun owners are allowed to transport securely stored firearms in a vehicle through a state, even if the state law would otherwise prohibit them from carrying in that state.⁷18 U.S.C. § 926A. This safe harbor is available to any person transporting a firearm for a lawful purpose who is allowed to possess the firearm under federal law, as well as to possess and carry the firearm in the jurisdictions where his trip begins and ends. It requires that firearms be unloaded, and that firearms and any ammunition not be readily accessible or directly accessible from the vehicle’s passenger compartment.

Importantly, this proposed mandate is different from how other licensing agreements between states have been handled, such as with driver’s licenses. States voluntarily accept each other’s driver’s licenses—there is no federal mandate. They choose to do this because all states require a license to drive, and generally have similar standards. In every state in the country, residents must actually drive a vehicle and pass a test before obtaining a license. By contrast, the variation between strong and weak concealed carry laws throughout the country is dramatic. Would you want someone from another state who had never passed a driving test—and may never have driven a car before—on the highway next to you and your family?

Letting states choose who can carry concealed handguns within their borders protects us because what works for some states may not work for others. In the American system, states have always been empowered to make these decisions—and indeed gun-carrying practices and social norms vary widely in different regions and between urban, suburban, and rural places. 

The proposed federal mandate could also open the floodgates for people who pose a danger to our communities to carry concealed, loaded handguns in public. This is because while guns purchased through licensed dealers require a background check, many guns are bought from unlicensed sellers—for example, online or at a gun show—without any check at all. In the 28 states without background checks on all gun sales, people who are prohibited from having guns can easily buy one through these private transactions with no questions asked. This could include domestic abusers or felons. A concealed carry permit may be the only background check some of these folks ever receive—and the only opportunity to stop those who are prohibited.

The Impact on Public Safety

In a landscape where state requirements for concealed carry permits have changed rapidly in recent years—with 17 of the 29 permitless states repealing their permit requirement in just the last six years⁸Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund, “Everytown Gun Law Navigator: Permitting Process.” See question 2. —it is important to understand the risks and impact of increasing the presence of guns in public spaces. Research reveals the serious threat to public safety that comes from allowing people to carry a concealed gun in public—in grocery stores, public parks, and on public transportation—without vetting or training.⁹John J. Donohue, Abhay Aneja, and Kyle D. Weber, “Right-to-Carry Laws and Violent Crime: A Comprehensive Assessment Using Panel Data and a State-Level Synthetic Control Analysis,” Journal of Empirical Legal Studies 16, no. 2 (2019): 198–247, https://doi.org/10.1111/jels.12219; Cassandra K. Crifasi et al., “Correction to: Association Between Firearm Laws and Homicide in Urban Counties,” Journal of Urban Health 95, no. 5 (2018): 773–76; Michael Siegel et al., “Easiness of Legal Access to Concealed Firearm Permits and Homicide Rates in the United States,” American Journal of Public Health 107, no. 12 (December 1, 2017): 1923–29, https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2017.304057; Emma E. Fridel, “Comparing the Impact of Household Gun Ownership and Concealed Carry Legislation on the Frequency of Mass Shootings and Firearms Homicide,” Justice Quarterly 38, no. 5 (2021): 892–915, https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2020.1789693; John Donohue et al., “More Guns, More Unintended Consequences: The Effects of Right-to-Carry on Criminal Behavior and Policing in US Cities,” NBER Working Paper 30190 (National Bureau of Economic Research, June 2022), https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30190/w30190.pdf. GVPedia reviewed 81 academic studies about concealed carry permits and found that a plurality of research in the field shows that weakening these laws increases violent crime. They further found that of the 50 modern studies since 2005, 64 percent found such laws increase violent crime. GVPedia, “FACT SHEET: Federally Mandated Concealed Carry Reciprocity,” Armed with Reason, February 27, 2025, https://armedwithreason.substack.com/p/fact-sheet-federally-mandated-concealed.

Most states that have repealed their concealed carry permitting requirements in recent years have seen increases in gun homicide and gun death rates.

• States that removed concealed carry permit requirements between 1999 and 2021 saw, on average, a 27 percent increase in gun homicides within three years of the change—the US as a whole saw less than half that increase.¹⁰GVPedia, “FACT SHEET: Federally Mandated Concealed Carry Reciprocity,” Armed with Reason, February 27, 2025, https://armedwithreason.substack.com/p/fact-sheet-federally-mandated-concealed. 
• Another analysis found a similar trend: 16 of the 20 states that enacted permitless carry between 2015 and 2022 experienced higher non-suicide shooting death rates after removing their permit requirements.¹¹Chip Brownlee, “Permitless Carry Will Deter Shootings, Proponents Said. That’s Not What’s Happened,” The Trace, August 9, 2024, https://www.thetrace.org/2024/08/permitless-concealed-carry-gun-super-bowl/.
• In one notable case, after West Virginia ended its requirement in 2016, gun homicide rates increased by 48 percent, handgun death rates rose nearly as much, and overall gun death rates climbed by 29 percent—all while gun death rates in the US remained relatively unchanged.¹²Eric W. Lundstrom, Jacob K. Pence, and Gordon S. Smith, “Impact of a Permitless Concealed Firearm Carry Law in West Virginia, 1999–2015 and 2016–2020,” American Journal of Public Health 113, no. 11 (2023): 1163–66, https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307382. 

It’s no surprise that when states allowed people to carry a concealed, loaded handgun in public without a permit—let alone training or live-fire experience—gun use and misuse increased. When states eliminated their concealed carry permit requirements, more people died from guns. A new federal mandate would risk the same outcome across the nation, particularly in states that have retained and even strengthened their permit laws and concealed carry standards. 

When states eliminate strong concealed carry requirements, the rate of gun assaults increases.¹³Mitchell Doucette et al., “Deregulation of Public Civilian Gun Carrying and Violent Crimes: A Longitudinal Analysis 1981-2019,” Criminology & Public Policy 23 (2024): 833–61, https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12638.

• States that abandoned strong concealed carry permitting systems—including those with live firearm training requirements—for permitless carry between 1981 and 2019 saw an average 32 percent increase in gun assaults.¹⁴Doucette et al., “Deregulation of Public Civilian Gun Carrying.”
• On the ground, this resulted in approximately 21 additional people being shot each year for every 100,000 residents.¹⁵Doucette et al., “Deregulation of Public Civilian Gun Carrying.” For a city like Philadelphia, that could mean 300 more people shot and countless more impacted each year.¹⁶In 2019, Philadelphia, PA’s population was 1,584,064. Census 2019 estimates used, https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-total-cities-and-towns.html.
• States with concealed carry permit requirements that included prohibitions for violent misdemeanor convictions, live-fire requirements, and the authority for permit issuers to deny an applicant based on a history of dangerousness or questionable character saw 22 percent lower firearm assault rates and 30 percent lower firearm homicide rates than states without these safeguards.¹⁷Mitchell Doucette et al., ”Impact of Changes to Concealed Carry Weapons Laws on Fatal and Nonfatal Violent Crime, 1980–2019,” American Journal of Epidemiology 192, no. 3 (2022): 342–55, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwac160. 

These studies highlight the public safety benefits of strong concealed carry permitting requirements. 

Gun violence in public—like road rage shootings—is more common in states without concealed carry permit requirements.

• Road rage shootings are increasing at an alarming rate in the US. In 2018, over 200 people were shot and killed or wounded in a road rage incident. By 2023, those numbers had doubled, with someone shot and wounded or killed in a road rage incident, on average, every 18 hours.¹⁸Everytown Research analysis of Gun Violence Archive data (accessed October 1, 2024). 
• States that did not require a permit had more than triple the rate of road rage shooting victimizations than those states with the historically most protective standards.¹⁹Sarah Burd-Sharps, Paige Tetens, and Kathryn R. Fingar, “Road Rage Shootings Remain Alarmingly High,” Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund, December 19, 2024, https://everytownresearch.org/road-rage-shootings-remain-alarmingly-high/.

Having a gun in the car emboldens drivers to behave in ways they otherwise wouldn’t. Policies that make it more likely that people will bring firearms into their vehicles only worsen this issue.

Overriding laws requiring permits to concealed carry in public increases the rate of fatal shootings by police.²⁰Mitchell Doucette et al., “Officer-Involved Shootings and Concealed Carry Weapons Permitting Laws: Analysis of Gun Violence Archive Data, 2014–2020,” Journal of Urban Health 99 (2022): 373–84, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-022-00627-5.

• For law enforcement, the prospect of more people carrying hidden handguns—many without a permit—is not only challenging but dangerous. Police officers need the ability to verify that people carrying concealed, loaded guns in public are legally allowed to carry them, to protect both those around them and themselves. 
• Additionally, this poses a risk to those interacting with police. If officers are concerned that everyone they speak to or pull over is carrying a hidden gun, they may be more likely to respond with force.  
• When researchers compared states that require concealed carry permits with states that removed the requirement, they found that the rate of fatal shootings by police in states without permits was, on average, 13 percent higher than expected had the requirement remained in place.²¹Doucette et al., “Officer-Involved Shootings and Concealed Carry.”

Forcing states to allow people from all other states to carry concealed handguns could complicate the job of law enforcement.

On February 14, 2024, an argument broke out at the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl parade in downtown Kansas City, Missouri, where a million people had gathered to celebrate. In many other cities it would have ended as it had started—with words. But it was in Missouri, where people can carry a concealed, loaded handgun in public without a permit, and the argument ended instead in a mass shooting, leaving one person dead and another 20 people wounded.²²“2 Charged with 2nd-degree Murder in Connection to Chiefs Parade Shooting,” KSHB 41, February 20, 2024, https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/parade-shooting/2-charged-with-second-degree-murder-in-connection-chiefs-parade-shooting; Brownlee, “Permitless Carry Will Deter Shootings, Proponents Said. That’s Not What’s Happened”; David Medina, “Celebrations, Confetti, Then Deadly Chaos: Remembering 2024 Chiefs Super Bowl Rally 1 Year Later,” KSHB 41, February 10, 2025, https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/celebrations-confetti-then-deadly-chaos-remembering-2024-chiefs-super-bowl-rally-1-year-later. 

One of the shooters that day had pulled a gun three years earlier, but prosecutors were unable to charge him with carrying a gun without a license—a crime that, had the permit requirement not been repealed, would have prohibited him from having a gun at the Super Bowl parade. The tragedy that scarred what would have been a triumphant celebration could possibly have been avoided.²³Brownlee, “Permitless Carry Will Deter Shootings, Proponents Said. That’s Not What’s Happened.”

A Federal Mandate Is Unpopular

Researchers aren’t the only ones who say that overruling state permitting laws is a bad idea; so do people and organizations²⁴American Bar Association, “House Passes ABA-Opposed Concealed-Carry Legislation,” December 31, 2017, https://www.americanbar.org/advocacy/governmental_legislative_work/publications/washingtonletter/december2017/concealed-carry/; American College of Physicians, letter to House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, December 8, 2017, https://www.acponline.org/sites/default/files/acp-policy-library/letters/letter_to_house_leaders_opposing_concealed_carry_reciprocity_act_2017.pdf; American Medical Association, “AMA Recommends New, Common-Sense Policies to Prevent Gun Violence,” press release, June 12, 2018, https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/press-releases/ama-recommends-new-common-sense-policies-prevent-gun-violence; Human Rights Campaign, “HRC Calls on Congress to Reject NRA Gun Bill,” press release, December 6, 2017, https://www.hrc.org/press-releases/hrc-calls-on-congress-to-reject-nra-gun-bill; League of Women Voters, “League Opposes Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017,” November 28, 2017, https://www.lwv.org/league-opposes-concealed-carry-reciprocity-act-2017. across the country. A federal mandate would go against the wishes of the majority of Americans—including gun owners and Republicans—who oppose allowing people to carry concealed guns without a permit²⁵Pew Research Center, “Gun Violence Widely Viewed as a Major – and Growing – National Problem.” and support requiring gun owners to pass a safety test before obtaining a concealed carry permit.²⁶Crifasi et al., “Public Opinion on Laws Regulating Public Gun Carrying.” When guns are present, people report that they are less likely to feel safe on public transit, less likely to shop at fairs and farmers’ markets, and less interested in recommending a park to a friend.²⁷Alexandra Filindra and Noah Kaplan, “The ’Chilling Effects’ of Gun Carry in Public Places”; Darrell A. H. Miller, Alexandra Filindra, and Noah Kaplan, “Technology, Tradition, and the Terror of the People,” Notre Dame Law Review 99, no. 4 (2023): 1373.

This proposal has also historically been unpopular with state and local law enforcement due to the unique challenges it creates.²⁸International Association of Chiefs of Police, “Law Enforcement Leaders Express Opposition to the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act,” press release, April 19, 2018, https://www.theiacp.org/news/blog-post/law-enforcement-leaders-express-opposition-to-the-concealed-carry-reciprocity-act; Major Cities Chiefs Association, “2018 Annual Report”; Major Cities Chiefs Association, “Firearms Violence Policy,” 2018, https://majorcitieschiefs.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/mcca_gun_policy_revised_2018_copy.pdf; Fraternal Order of Police, “Legislation Opposed by the FOP in the 115th Congress,” https://fop.net/legislation/legislation-opposed-by-the-fop-in-the-115th-congress/; National Policing Institute, “National Law Enforcement Partnership to Prevent Gun Violence.” Police often have no way to verify whether an out-of-state permit is valid, meaning they would be unable to confirm if a person presenting a carry permit is a law-abiding gun owner.²⁹National Policing Institute, “National Law Enforcement Partnership to Prevent Gun Violence.” And because the legislation would allow many people to carry concealed firearms with no permit at all, law enforcement would have no permit to evaluate. That’s why the National Law Enforcement Partnership to Prevent Gun Violence³⁰National Policing Institute, “National Law Enforcement Partnership to Prevent Gun Violence.” responded to federal efforts to override state concealed carry permitting laws by stating: 

“This obvious step in the wrong direction would sow chaos and uncertainty, making a cop’s job harder and citizens less safe.”³¹National Policing Institute, “National Law Enforcement Partnership to Prevent Gun Violence.”

Attorneys general,³²Eric T. Schneiderman, Attorney General, State of New York Office of the Attorney General, et al., “RE: Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017 (S. 446) and Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017 (H.R. 38),” October 22, 2017, https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2017.10.22_ags_opposed_to_conceal_carry_reciprocity_w_sigs.pdf. mayors,³³United States Conference of Mayors, “2017 Adopted Resolutions, Criminal and Social Justice: Support Policies That Protect Cities From the Threat of Concealed Carry Reciprocity Legislation,” June 2017, https://web.archive.org/web/20180209150705/http://legacy.usmayors.org/resolutions/85th_Conference/proposedcommittee.asp?committee=Criminal%20and%20Social%20Justice; African American Mayors Association, “Resolution in Opposition to Federal ‘Concealed Carry Reciprocity,’” June 2017, https://ourmayors.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/OPPOSITION-TO-FEDERAL-CONCEALED-CARRY-RECIPROCITY-7.pdf; Michele Gorman, “’Dangerous’ Concealed Carry Reciprocity Measures Condemned by Mayors’ Group,” Newsweek, June 27, 2017, https://www.newsweek.com/mayors-oppose-concealed-carry-guns-629401. city councilmembers,³⁴National League of Cities, “House Passage of the Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act Threatens Cities,” December 8, 2017, https://www.nlc.org/article/2017/12/08/house-passage-of-the-concealed-carry-reciprocity-act-threatens-cities/; New York City Council, “Res 1677-2017: Congress & the President to Oppose Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017 (H.R.38) and the Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017 (S.446),” October 17, 2017, https://legistar.council.nyc.gov/LegislationDetail.aspx?ID=3178256&GUID=C30DAB3E-0FF2-4F0E-A27C-0410E924453A&Options=&Search=; City Council of the City of Minneapolis, “Resoluton 2017R-508: Opposing Gun Conceal and Carry Reciprocity Laws,” December 8, 2017, https://lims.minneapolismn.gov/Download/MetaData/5412/SignedAct.pdf; Los Angeles City Council, “Council File: 17–0002–S30, HR 38 / Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017,” February 21, 2017, https://cityclerk.lacity.org/lacityclerkconnect/index.cfm?fa=ccfi.viewrecord&cfnumber=17-0002-S30; Michael W. Curley, Jr., “North Jersey Towns Protest Federal Concealed Carry Gun Bill,” NorthJersey.com, November 20, 2017, https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/bergen/fort-lee/2017/11/20/new-jersey-towns-protest-federal-concealed-carry-gun-bill/867441001/; Ryan Stanton, “Ann Arbor Takes Stance Against Proposed Concealed Gun Law,” MLive, March 20, 2018, https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/2018/03/ann_arbor_takes_stance_against.html. and prosecutors³⁵Association of Prosecuting Attorneys, “Re: Prosecutors’ Concerns Regarding the Constitutional Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017 and Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act of 2017,” November 27, 2017, https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000160-028a-dc43-a360-47ca71330000. have long agreed that a federal mandate on concealed handgun carry would make their jobs more challenging. It would also undermine states’ rights, since states have long held the authority to decide who can carry a concealed gun in public and where concealed guns are prohibited.

Conclusion

A federal mandate forcing every state to accept every other state’s concealed carry standards—including those without any permit or safeguards at all—is dangerous and unpopular. Research shows that when states stop requiring permits to carry hidden handguns in public, gun homicides, gun assaults, and overall gun deaths can increase. These states also tend to have higher rates of road rage shootings and shootings by police. States have long had the power to craft tailored laws to protect their residents from violence, fear, and uncertainty. A federal mandate overruling this authority and gutting state laws poses grave public safety concerns.