Appendix 2: Crime Gun Intelligence Firearm Trafficking Indicators

What is Crime Gun Intelligence?

Crime Gun Intelligence (CGI) is primarily trace data associated with crime guns recovered in a particular jurisdiction. When available, CGI can also include data derived from the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN).

What information is contained in a comprehensive crime gun trace that forms the basis of CGI?

• Purchaser demographics (name, date of birth, and address)
• Date of purchase and date of recovery, which is used to calculate time-to-crime (TTC)
• Possessor demographics, if any (name, date of birth, address, gang affiliation [if any]) 
• Recovery location (address, city, county, state)
• NCIC¹⁰³The National Crime Information Center (NCIC) is a computerized database of documented criminal justice information available to virtually every U.S. law enforcement agency. crime category (e.g., weapons offense, homicide, aggravated assault)
• Transferring¹⁰⁴The “transferring” FFL is the final known FFL that transfers or sells the firearm to a private citizen. Federal Firearms Licensee (name, address, license number)
• Crime gun description: manufacturer, model (if any), type, caliber, or gauge 

By collecting this information from individual crime gun traces and then analyzing aggregate trace data from a particular jurisdiction, investigators can efficiently and effectively analyze trends and patterns, identify the traffickers and straw purchasers who are arming the criminal possessors committing violent gun crimes in their jurisdiction, and determine which licensed dealers are the sources of crime guns that traffickers purchase. 

The following are known indicators that can be captured in a Crime Gun Intelligence Analytics Dashboard to identify traffickers:

• Purchasers with at least one trace with a TTC of less than one year in which the possessor is someone different from the purchaser or unknown.
• Purchasers with at least one trace with a TTC of less than one year in which the firearm was recovered more than 100 miles from where it was purchased.
• Purchasers with at least one interstate trace with a TTC of less than three years in which the possessor was someone different from the purchaser or unknown.
• Purchasers with two or more traces with an average TTC of less than three years.
• Purchasers with two or more traces with interstate recoveries. 
• Purchasers with two or more traces in which the possessor was someone different from the purchaser or unknown.

These additional indicators can be used if NIBIN data is layered into a Crime Gun Intelligence Analytics Dashboard:

• Any trace with a negative¹⁰⁵A negative TTFS can occur when a fired cartridge casing from the firearm has been recovered and entered into NIBIN, the firearm is then reacquired by a gun dealer, later resold, and finally recovered and entered into NIBIN. time-to-first-shooting (TTFS) of less than one year.
• Purchasers with at least one trace linked to a TTFS of less than one year.
• Purchasers with at least two traces associated with shootings with a TTFS of less than three years.
• Purchasers with at least two traces, both with different possessors, and associated with at least one shooting.

How to Initiate a CGI Analytics Program to Identify Trafficking Sources:

In order to identify the gun stores supplying traffickers, investigators must first formulate a baseline of trace activity for all gun stores in the relevant jurisdiction. This baseline will normalize the data and allow for effective analysis of the gun stores disproportionately responsible for arming traffickers. 

Using only the FFLs with at least one trace in the past 12 months, create the following baseline metrics:

• Average number of traces per FFL
• Average TTC for all traces
• Percentage of traces with a TTC of less than one year
• Percentage of traces with a TTC of less than three years
• Percentage of traces in which the possessor is different from the purchaser
• Percentage of interstate recoveries
• Percentage of international recoveries
• Trace-to-disposition ratio (if volume is known through NICS Point-of-Contact [POC] checks or required sales reporting)¹⁰⁶The Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act (18 U.S.C. § 922(t)) requires FFLs to initiate a National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) background check prior to transferring a firearm to an unlicensed person. In certain states, these checks are completed by a designated state agency rather than FBI-NICS. For a list of those states, see https://www.atf.gov/rules-and-regulations/laws-alcohol-tobacco-firearms-and-explosives/gun-control-act/brady-law/brady-state-lists. The number of NICS checks conducted by an FFL can be used as an estimated number of firearms disposed or transferred.
• Percentage of traces associated with shootings (if NIBIN data are available) 

After these baseline metrics have been established, a crime gun intelligence analytics dashboard can be used to calculate how many categories are above baseline for each FFL in the jurisdiction, accounting for their total number of traces. Those results would allow investigators to prioritize FFLs with at least 10 traces and three or more categories above baseline.

Read the Full Report

• The Supply Side of Violence: How Gun Dealers Fuel Firearm Trafficking Report